This post-event report is a transcribed selection of the presentations from TBB25.
The clean energy transition stays the course in Europe
Over the past 12 months, Europe voted for a new parliament and a new commission, and the message is that we stick to our guns. The compass in terms of clean evolution, both in energy and industry, remains, but it will be slower. That is the first good news.
The second piece of good news is that the commission is now also addressing the supply side. We have been cautious in implementing these measures to ensure that the supply for this demand will be at least 40% from EU sources, but we are making progress, which is a powerful message. We not only create a market, but we will also reap the benefits of growth and jobs that come with creating that market. So that is the first message of the last 12 months. We Europeans stick to the compass at lower speeds; we will stick to the compass.
Turning global challenges into clean energy opportunities
The Trump administration has decided to halt the clean evolution for four years. That presents a tremendous opportunity for us Europeans. Although we may go a bit slower, we remain on the same path. We have a four-year opportunity to be ahead of the game.
The second thing the US has done is start a trade war. This is also contributing to changing the frame. China is responding to the US market’s closure by dumping excess capacity into Europe. This means that Europe must be agile to capture that as an opportunity, rather than a threat. The third aspect is whether China is part of the problem or the solution. With the recent changes, China has become part of the solutions toolbox strategy.
In terms of the financial world and its investors, public finances are stretched. There is no more public money. We must consider the next few years with guarantees, subsidies, and CFDs, but without new capital. This means adapting to a world with limited and changing public finances, and where private investors are reevaluating their investment theses. So, all things considered, do we have an opportunity or a challenge? That is an opportunity to grab.
Shifting the wealth to your pocket
All Europeans work 72 days, from 1 January to 12 March, to pay for gas and oil imports. The day we reduce those 72 days to, say, 20, all this wealth remains in our pockets. That is our wealth, our jobs and our own autonomy.
Today, Europeans use 13,000 TWh of energy, 4,000 electric and 9,000 non-electric. In 2040-ish, the 13,000 TWh will be 11,000 TWh because we will be more efficient. The 4,000 electric TWh will be 9,000 electric TWh. That is a tremendous opportunity because those electrified demand sources will, for example, be mobility, heating, and hard-to-abate industries. We are masters of our destiny, and that wealth will stay in our pockets. One data to show the size of this opportunity: in the room here today, many of InnoEnergy’s 39 shareholders are present. Their aggregated market capitalisation is $1 trillion; a year ago, it was $800 billion. Over just one year, their market capitalisation has increased by $200 billion by operating in the same field as we are all doing business in. So, the fundamentals remain: there is still a tremendous business opportunity to capture.
Walking into TBB, we had 2,800 pre-booked meetings to facilitate transactions and advance the clean industrial deal. Let’s hit the road!
-Diego Pavía, CEO at InnoEnergy.
